ANALYSIS by Sam Neagus: The Comment Space's International Relations specialist
The most secretive state in the world has launched a shelling attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong. US President Barack Obama has been ‘outraged’ by the actions of North Korea, and even The Kremlin has issued a clear statement of condemnation.
The South Korean military had been carrying out a routine exercise when they were fired at with a number of shells which landed on the island, killing two soldiers and wounding both military personnel and civilians. Needless to say, the South returned fire, yet casualties in the North are unknown.
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| Kim Jong-Il: believed to be in poor health |
The crisis is feared to escalate so quickly that the US State Department quickly issued a statement in full support of their allies in South Korea, sending out a message that they would be willing to use force and the 28,000 US armed forces personnel based in South Korea would be deployed should it be deemed necessary.
United Nations Security General, Ki-moon is said to be “deeply concerned by the escalation of tension” and has even called it the worst incident on the Korean peninsula since the war between the two Koreas.
The two Korea’s are hardly known to get on well, yet tensions have not escalated into a crisis for a while now. Yet, deeper analysis would certainly suggest that the timing is certainly not unsurprising: it has been widely speculated that the Dictator Kim-Jong-Il is in poor health (often thought to be a result of heavy drinking) and he is in the process of handing over power to his son, Kim-Jong-un. The incident would have undoubtedly given him an insight into the international sphere of politics, even if North Korea has an extremely isolationist outlook.
One could even speculate that the North Korean military took such action as a way to show discontent with the passing down of power. One member of the US delegation aimed at resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis believes that the armed services are even hostile to the succession from Kim Jong-Il to his son.
Another convincing argument for such aggression is linked to worries about aid. The South Korean government has reduced aid to their Northern neighbours to very insignificant levels, and seeing as the North has been hit with natural disasters affecting the harvest, combined with UN and US economic sanctions, which has left its economic system close to collapse.
The BBC have suggested that the attack is to refocus attention from the international community back onto the dictatorial regime, as their economy is in desperate need of aid, and they want nuclear talks to resume. Needless to say, this does not appear to be a rational decision should they desire such sympathy.
It seems however, that it is ultimately South Korea who must decide how to act. The President may choose to follow a diplomatic route, attempting to gain sympathy from the United Nations as well as allies in the West.
However, I’m sceptical about the chance of them actually doing, especially since the sinking of the South Korean battleship in March was not resolved successfully in a peaceful manner. It seems fair to say, in my opinion, that they President Lee Myung-bak will place conditions on the continuing trade between the two nations, likely to be that the North must follow nuclear disarmament- such a sanction will cause outrage by Kim Jong-Il and could see yet further tension in the area, or even a second Korean war.
If North Korea are in the midst of handing over power from the leader to his son, it is unlikely that they will be cooperative, and if anything will want to show military strength and prowess.
It is certainly a tense state of affairs, and the next weeks will be crucial in determining the course of Far Eastern relations for the years to come.
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In Washington this week…
As the 2010 Mid Term election cycle has recently come to an end, political commentators have already begun to look forward to the Presidential elections in two years time. Fox News has speculated that Obama may face a contested Primary Election season, which means that there is every chance he becomes only the third President to fail a re-election bid. Blue Dog Democrat (the right-wing faction of the Democratic Party) Russell Feingold lost his Senate seat earlier this month, but mysteriously said “its onto the next battle, in 2012” after his defeat. Feingold has an intricate knowledge of the economy, and one would expect him to play on this in the primary season, should he stand. Whilst all speculation at the moment, Barack Obama cannot be looking forward to the prospect of a long fought and bloody primary battle, which could yet further damage his reputation.
In an incredible statement today, Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri has said that she wanted to eliminate earmarks (additions to legislation, which are often costly and provide little benefit to the country as a whole- usually specify what state/area is involved) from the Bill currently being debated on Capitol Hill, regarding farming subsidies. Not only would her state benefit, it has traditionally been the Republican Party who oppose such earmarks. Perhaps a sign that she has seen US Politics as a whole leap to the right, jumping on the conservative and TEA Party bandwagon?
Democrat Congressman, Bill Owens (New York state) has admitted that he is not sure who he will vote for to be the new House of Representatives Speaker when the 112th Congress starts on January 3rd after the mid-term elections which saw the GOP gain 62 seats. He seems keen on the idea of Republican candidate, John Boehner taking over from Democrat Nancy Pelosi. Should he defect from his party, he will be the first Congressman to do so since 2001 when James Traficant (Democrat) voted for Denis Hastert.
The Judicial branch of the US Federal Government: The Supreme Court was at the centre of a controversy last week after two justices clashed and exchanged strong words when debating whether capital punishment was unconstitutional and should therefore be outlawed. Antonin Scalia, 74 is currently the longest serving Justice, having been appointed by Ronald Reagan is considered to be the most right-wing Judge shot down Stephen Breyer (a more liberal leaning Justice), arguing passionately that the death sentence “definitely does not constitute cruel and unusual punishment” (which is one of the terms in the Constitution). This public disagreement further emphasises how political the Court has become, even if it is supposed to be ‘above Politics’.
(Picture with courtesy of Chattahbox.com)
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